I’ll be breaking down the teams: looking at recent performances and each position. Then I'll look how they are matched against each other: play style and champion picks. It's incredibly hard to predict what such a big patch like 4.13 will do on the pro scene (I hate it when riot does this right before playoffs, but they want everything in order for worlds so I guess we should forgive them.)
The most notable change is, of course, heal and exhaust. We will probably see more assassin play and perhaps barrier again on ADC's (I definitely recommend it on midlaners that don't want to run ignite.) The nerfs and buffs to the marksmen also open up the pool. Vayne could be a special pick-up again for players like CandyPanda or Rekkles, while Graves and Sivir buffs could bring them back to competitive play. Sivir was a very favourite markswoman, used for quick rotations, and she only got better at it.
The holy trinity of junglers got nerfed, but all three are still very strong and I don't expect too many new jungle picks. All power supports got scaled back except Morgana, but I don't expect many new picks there until Sona becomes available for play. Lulu and Gragas got hit a bit, while Maokai still runs rampant. Ziggs got hit on his ult, but will still be a priority pick for his normal wave clear, together with Xerath if they fix the bug on time. Nothing new and broken seems to have emerged, but no one has had enough time to figure everything out yet.
Supa Hot Crew - Roccat
SHC has been a team on the rise, half because of the downfall of stronger teams, but also because they have consistently improved throughout the split. It’s a team made off pseudo-star players. Selfie and MrRalleZ shine when they carry, but don’t do this frequently enough. Impaler and Mimer are the strong rocks of SHC in that they can be relied on to do their job and push them to victory. With the latest addition of KaSing, they have, so they say, found a better voice in the team; a solid captain in the wild seas they are sometimes in. Selfie’s large champion pool is a strong point for SHC, since he isn't easy to ban out and can really devastate the enemy if he gets a dangerous pick like Yasuo. He is, unfortunately, not the most consistent mid, and if he doesn't get the best start, he tends to falter later in the game. MrRalleZ is somewhat similar; he always brings good numbers, but he can’t do it without his team. Too much pressure in the botlane could make it hard for him to carry. Though he isn't the flashiest player, he will deal considerable damage in teamfights if left unchecked. Impaler is always aggressive, even when he shouldn't be, but it mostly works out for them. He is bannable, though, and not the strongest in 1v1s. He could be targeted with good counterjungling. If Impaler does well, the whole team tends to do well, so a lot will depend on him if the lanes aren't going smoothly. Mimir can be crucial on having great TPs, but should just have a solid laning phase so he can tank or be the utility that Selfie and MrRalleZ need to win the game.
Roccat was a team destined for relegation, then a team on a hot streak, but now they've fallen again in the last few weeks. Overpow is probably the most passive midlaner in EU. Even though he occasionally does well in teamfights at the later stages of the game, it’s usually way too late - when his opponents can just free farm to break the 20 minute CS record or roam the map and make an impact in other lanes. Jankos and Vander are the pillars for Roccat. Vander is a great support that can make clutch plays/picks to win a teamfight or snowball the botlane. While Jankos will always stick to his style, he is very scary at it; an aggressive jungler that carries his team through early ganking or strong counterjungling. Celaver feels like a weaker version of MrRalleZ, only going in when Vander makes a move, but he provides the dps the team needs to win the games. Xaxus is not the most mechanically skilled player, but he was quick to jump on the Maokai train before anyone else, so we might see some strong picks from him on the new 4.13 patch. In general, Roccat secured wins with (mostly in the midlane) strange picks and very long, sloppy games.
The teams' head-to-head is 2-2 this split, with Roccat winning the most recent match this past Superweek. To be fair, SHC didn't had the best start in Superweek. Impaler’s Rengar was lack-luster and the Zilean pick in mid is something teams still have to adjust to. SHC looked stronger on the last day of Superweek and has looked the better team this whole split. Jankos will probably be the key factor for Roccat to win the series. Roccat leads the EU with the most first bloods and Jankos is almost always involved. Overpow’s lack of pressure in mid will be heaven for Selfie, but Jankos will always be around to bite him in the ass. Impaler can handle Jankos if he gets a comfortable jungler to control the early pressure, and makes sure that his lanes can get ahead by themselves. Vander and Jankos could really swing the lead into their favour with good pressure all around the map.
Most bans will probably be targeted around the midlane since both players have a pretty big pool. This will open up the botlane and jungle to get the strong picks that they need to win the game. This mostly benefits Roccat, since Overpow is never the hard carry from the team. SHC’s best chance is focusing on Jankos or Vander, banning out junglers/getting Impaler a strong first pick, and making sure their botlane has a durable combo that can’t be beaten easily in lane. Roccat has to focus the midlane and make sure Selfie doesn't get rolling, or keep pressuring bot and get a lead by keeping MrRalleZ down and getting early dragons.
Both teams haven’t showed the most consistent tactical play, yet but I feel SHC will make the better rotations and clutch calls. Roccat plays conservatively and won’t risk too much in the midgame if they aren’t ahead by a large margin. This is a weakness but could also lure the SHC in a false sense of security and they could make ill-advised moves because of it.
In general, if SHC makes the right calls, they are the stronger team in mid-late game with better rotations and teamfights. Roccat will need to win early and feast on the occasional reckless moves from SHC to get a lead early and close out the game. If Roccat doesn't get a decent gold lead by the twenty minute mark, I don’t see them winning a game unless SHC makes really dumb moves. Both teams are exploitable in pick and bans and should really focus on that and early game vision to make the right moves.
My prediction: 3-1 for SHC. They have to prove that they deserve that third place and didn't just luck out in the split. I do think Roccat can take a game just by having a surprise pick, which could throw SHC off guard, or if Jankos gets a great opening which can snowball the game out of control.
SK Gaming - Millenium
What seemed like a top contender for the top three in EU suddenly dropped at the end of the season because a lack of practice. SK Gaming stepped it up again in the last Superweek, beating Millenium, and both Fnatic and Alliance. They looked more focused; back as a solid team that has great synergy and an objective-focused mindset. However, their loss to Gambit showed that they can still fall easy under a lot of early pressure.
Fredy is a solid top laner but has the tendency to feed unnecessary on his favourite feed-to-win champ Aatrox. He hasn't shown much potential on the newly strong top laners like Maokai or Gragas, nor is his Lulu very scary. On the other hand, his Nidalee is ban-worthy, and he can put a lot of pressure down with certain older picks like Shyvana or Renekton. Map vision and clear communication from SK should make sure Fredy doesn't overextend too much so he can grow into a scary threat for the teamfights. Svenskeren makes or breaks most of SK's games. If he can do well, the team will carry with him, but when he isn't impactful early, then the team just seems to whither away like an old man in a nursing home. I feel the team will need to focus their priority on making sure he gets a strong champion and a solid start in each game. Jesiz isn't the flashiest player but has shown brilliant play on a variety of champions, most recently with Ahri. He can’t really be targeted heavily with bans anymore but he can be beaten in lane with some early pressure. He's not the best at farming, so it's very important that he gets off to a good start to be relevant in the whole game. Candy and nRated are not the strongest botlane but are very smart and have a lot of experience. They will not be easily swayed into a bad trade and can surprise the enemy on occasion. nRated’s Gragas support play is very scary when played well, which makes Gragas a great flex pick for the team if Fredy works on that pick as well. Though we have to find out if the Gragas nerfs in the new patch affect him much in laning phase. With Maokai still unchanged, he should probably be the biggest priority for most teams, but I believe we will see him almost perma-banned throughout the playoffs.
Millenium is a one-trick pony team that hasn't changed much at the end of the split. They excel at pick-oriented assassin comps that catch lone players off-guard. Most teams have gotten used to this style and know what to ban and how to play against it to minimize its effectiveness. However, this new patch favours assassins, and with increased Zed and Talon play in other regions, this could be a bright spot for Kerp and his team. Millenium went 0-4 in Superweek and is definitely not looking hot. This patch could be their lucky break to making it into the semi’s. They can beat SK with early power and a strong split push. kev1n is a strong top laner that can excel on certain picks like Irelia. His smart play in lane and timed aggression could be a real problem for SK if he gets help from his jungle. Kottenx has really helped Millenium get away from that relegation position they were in last split. Good pressure and mechanics have really helped the team to a lot of wins. His 2v2 with Kerp is very dangerous for any team if Kerp gets his hands on a strong assassin. Kerp’s Zilean drew some bans but teams just have no idea how to play against it. It’s not the best pick and Kerp should focus on his assassins or some heavy wave clear champs like Ziggs or Orianna.
Millenium’s botlane is the real strength of the team but with most comps relying on split push and pick potential, Creaton and Jree get left out on their own sometimes. Creaton has shown on many occasions that he is a brilliant ADC and can carry if the team lets him. Lucian will be a great champion to have back in his pool. The versatility and all-around strength of that champion let’s Creaton do whatever he wants, even if the team isn't focused around him. Corki and Tristana will probably be the priority picks since they bring mobility and carry potential for Creaton. Jree has also shown solid support ability and is one hell of a fisher on both Blitzcrank and Tresh.
Millenium should focus on their strengths: give Kerp a strong 1v1 champion and Creaton a strong self-peeling ADC - while Jree and Kevin zone for him. Kottenx just needs to take control of the early game and it could set Millenium up for an upset over SK.
The teams' head-to-head is also 2-2. They are both quite even in lanes with a slight edge to Millenium. SK more than makes up for it in having a much better tactical understanding of the game. A lot will depend on the junglers; both of them need to get their lanes rolling and have a big control over the map. SK will try to take advantage by grouping up and rotating to take down turrets, while making sure Kerp doesn't get free kills. Millenium’s recent performance doesn't promise much for the playoffs, but the new patch is really in their favour. SK should stay calm in the early game and not give up too much then they can out rotate and outplay Millenium on a tactical level with probably a better team comp. If SK can attack the weak points of Millennium in the pick and ban phase and then play a measured game, they should take the series without too many problems. Millenium can surprise them though, and their botlane should never be underestimated.
My prediction: 3-2 for SK. SK is the smarter team and have shown recently that their lanes aren’t as weak anymore. If they prepare hard and think about the series, even if they drop a game they should beat Millenium. Millenium has looked very weak lately and their one-style has always been weak and exploitable. They have a lot of talent in their team, however, and could surprise with a strong assassin pick or maybe a more ADC-centered comp. But in my experience, consistency and smart play beats explosive game play in a "best-of" series.
Thanks for reading, I’m open for any comment so leave them below or tweet me @antdrioite
I will make a preview about the semi’s and finals after the quarters are over.
