The LCS Returns May 28th

2015 Summer Split Predictions

by Jerrod "Thousand Eyes" Steis

NA LCS

1. Cloud 9

A bit surprisingly, I’ve got Cloud 9 back on top. Hai retired, which is a huge loss for their team, but he’s still going to be around providing insight, meaning his contributions will still be felt. The question becomes, will they have Incarnati0n be a shot caller or transition someone else on the team into it. We have yet to see what Incarnati0n will bring, but he’s kept himself up on the top of the solo queue ladder all this time while he was banned. If that doesn’t say he’s been preparing for this moment, I don’t know what does. The rest of the team is still as strong as ever, and with Balls moving past his slump from the early part of the season and Sneaky putting himself in the running for best ADC in NA, Cloud 9 looks like they’re ready to take back their crown from TSM.

What to Watch:

Incarnati0n is back for the first time since LCS’s inception.
Sneaky needs to keep his success up


2. TSM

There really isn’t much to say here for TSM, everyone knows how dominant they’ve been this season and they haven’t had to change a thing. Their one point of competition was Cloud 9 and Hai just couldn’t perform in addition to some early season slumps from Balls. Lustboy was a monster and Bjerg was Bjerg. Santorin was a surprise to me, as watching how other teams have had promising players come in and proceed to trip their way down the split, Santorin looked very comfortable after the first few weeks. Teams kept trying to tilt Dyrus and it just didn’t work. He kept himself on champs like Lulu and Maokai, who don’t need to get as much gold to be useful, and did his thing. If there’s one chink in the armor though it’s WildTurtle. He has a habit of getting very aggressive and sometimes puts himself in a bad position. The rest of the team has been able to cover that, but this split looks like it’s got even more competition than last.

What to Watch:

Dyrus Dying
WildTurtle positioning


3. CLG

Ahh CLG, always looking great until the end of the season. This might finally be the split to break that though. Link has retired and he’s being replaced almost SKT style by bringing in two different mid laners that CLG plan on swapping back and forth. It’s going to be interesting to see how NA teams handle trying to strategize around 2 possible players. The player to watch here is going to be Xmithie, he had a few chokes late in the split in the spring and it’s going to be on him to try and fix those mistakes coming into the home stretch for worlds. I think finally we’ll see the team start to pull themselves together and make a run for Europe.

What to Watch:

Xmithie needs to step up a bit
How will Swapping of mid laners work for and against CLG

All Photos courtesy of Riot Esports

4. Team Impulse

Impulse started off last split in complete disarray. The dirty laundry of LMQ had been aired out and the only remaining player was XiaoWeiXiao. Impulse pulled in Impact of S3 World champs SKT, which everyone thought would be the big pick up. The player that has really shown up though has been Apollo( formerly WizFujiin). His play really solidified Impulse as a threat to other teams. While they needed time to understand their calls, the team speaks 3 different languages, they seemed like they were going full force at the end of the split and they will most likely be keeping that trend up moving into the summer.

What to Watch:

Continued success from the end of last split
XiaoWeiXiao farming

5. Team Liquid

Liquid looked really strong at the end of the split, finally breaking the Curse curse. The real question now is going to be, “will they keep the momentum or start back from the beginning?”. I’m leaning more towards them keeping it up. Piglet looked more like a former world champion than we had ever seen from him in NA at the end of playoffs and while Quas and Dominate will be the backing veterans lead by Xpecial, Fenix has shown how he can be an up and coming threat and brief Mcmoments from Keith have been great signs on where the team is heading.

What to Watch:

Piglet is looking back to his old form
Fenix keeping heat up in mid


6. Enemy Esports

The new kids on the block, we don’t know that much about them, especially because they got a free pass into the LCS. Innox is back and will most likely be trying to lead the team with his previous LCS experience. Otter and Trashy have substitute experience, so they aren’t going in blind. They absolutely stomped the NACS and I think they will hold their own against the lower tier teams in the league.

What to Watch:

Innox back in a new lane
How will Otter stack up against other ADCs


7. Team 8

Calitrolz is the leader of this team. Which is actually unfortunate for two reasons. One, he’s leaving after this split and if Team 8 survives they need to find a new top laner and they most likely won’t find one with the same level of leadership and knowledge as Calitrolz. Two, the meta just doesn’t favor top lane carries at the moment. Maple and Slooshi are usually behind and Cali can only sometimes even it out Usually a win depends on how Porpoise shows up

What to Watch:

Calitrolz pulling his team up as far as he can
Porpoise needs to make an impact


8. Gravity

Saint is retiring and while his mechanical strengths weren’t all too great his shot calling was what made him the right fit for Gravity. He has a lot of game knowledge and I’d love to see him be a coach one day. Regardless he won’t be on Gravity next season. This is a really crushing blow and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Gravity making some bad calls this split. Keane is very volatile and he can pull out some weird picks that either make plays or just lose hard. Hauntzer is very underrated, but he don’t play champs that can carry if other lanes fall behind really hard. Bunny is amazing if you put him on Thresh, but he stumbles a bit otherwise, and of course Cop is just Cop.

What to Watch: 

Who’s going to make the calls in game
What will Keane do next


9. Team Dragon Knights

The team that Alex got into the league, whether you agree with what happened or not, they’re here now. It’s gonna be hard to pinpoint these guys since we don’t even know who their mid laner is going to be. Seraph is here, and he seems a lot more comfortable than he was in CLG, and he’s being put in a position that he is more familiar with not only with his team, but the way the meta is shaping up as well. Altec is rumoured to be in talks to join the team, and if that happens in addition to getting a good mid laner, I could see these guys shooting up. For now though I’ve got them in 9th

What to Watch:

Seraph on smite tele hyper tanks
Mid lane and ADC changes


10. Team Dignitas

I was legitimately surprised that Dignitas beat Fusion. Fusion once again flopped out and choked. This doesn’t really mean much other than one more split. dignitas made no roster changes, and have little to offer outside of great engages from KiWiKiD. Both Gamsu and Azingy have been disappointing as well as CoreJJ and Shiphtur has never lived up to his potential.

What to Watch:

KiWiKiD engages
Surprises if someone steps up

EU LCS 

1. H2K

H2K were almost the ones to go to MSI because of a very close best of 5 at the end of the Spring Split. While Fnatic makes their plays by engaging and forcing fights, H2k has a much more tactical approach. With their coach Pr0lly at the helm, they went from being a lower tier team to almost champs in a split. I can only imagine how hungry they are after their small taste of the top and are busting their butts to try and get 1st this split. Their macro game strategy is top notch and a step above other teams in Europe and this is what’s going to take them to number 1.

What to Watch:

Rotations
Wins from map control rather than brute force


2. Fnatic

Fnatic showed themselves as a top tier team at MSI almost being the first team to take down SKT in a best of 5, despite that they’re being placed 2nd. They made an interesting swap in picking up Rekkles again after he left Elements. Once again messing with the synergy, which in my opinion was one of Fnatic’s strengths, and swapping out Steelback. Steelback was doing pretty well for himself, so I’m pretty surprised about this. Febiven looked like a monster at MSI and was able to solo kill Faker a few times. Huni is still Huni and Yell0wStaR is always going to be flash Tibbers stunning people all day. Rekkles is a much safer ADC though and I don’t know how well he’s going to handle the aggression

What to Watch:

Rekkles and his ability to mesh with the new team
Huni being cute


3. Origen

I’m probably gonna get a lot of flak for this one. I think Origen is going to end 3rd regardless. xPeke is still very good and Amazing is solid. Niels is also really good at ADC, but I’m too split on S0az. He’s very tilt happy and I’ve seen it cause his teams losses many times in the past. When he’s on, he’s very very good, but he’s prone to just throwing himself at the enemy if he starts to fall behind.

What to Watch:

S0az tilt and how he handles it
Bot lane is relatively new to pro play, Mithy hasn’t played for over a year

4. Unicorns of Love

I love the playstyle, as it’s exciting and unique, but I don’t see Unicorns of Love making it past 4th this split. Their style is inherently risky and can cause them to get stomped sometimes because it doesn’t work. They know what they’re doing but we’ve seen them falter at points. Not only that but this split there are a lot more competitive teams coming in. Hylissang also has some work to do on supports that aren’t Thresh.

What to Watch:

Lots of weird picks
Bot lane camps since it’s their weakest lane


5. Elements

If you can still call them that. The super team that turned out to be a mess and a half. Froggen is the only remaining member. While I think The move to Jwaow is an upgrade, Wickd is from an era gone by, Tabzz is about even, and Dexter is around the same. PromisQQ is a brand new player to the LCS so we don’t have a lot to go on. There’s a lot of team building that needs to happen, but these guys are all, with the exception of PromisQQ, guys who’ve been in the LCS and around the block for a bit, so I don’t see it as being too much of an issue.

What to Watch:

How will the new guy, PromisQQ handle the big stage pressure
Will missteps happen with little time to prepare

6. SK Gaming

Obviously SK didn’t have the end of the split they had hoped for, but they have moved towards a more team oriented approach now. An approach I feel will be better for them. CandyPanda is a much more selfless ADC and that lets players like Fox and Freddy carry more. The only problem this might cause is that it leaves a very open weak spot in SK where they used to have none. SK needs to understand how to play from behind because they might have to with the mechanical downgrade

What to Watch:

Weaker bot lane than last split
Have they learned to play from behind


7. Gambit Gaming

The addition of FORG1VEN is huge for Gambit, but I don’t believe it’s a purely positive huge. While the “See Hero Kill Hero” strategy of Gambit is a better fit for FORG1VEN I don’t believe they have had enough time to mesh and this can cause, and has caused, teams to melt down. Gambit also only barely got going near the end of the split after making a bunch of changes. While it’s possible they can keep that going, it’ll be hard with a new ADC. The biggest questions are going to be how well Gambit can handle strife as they could very easily spiral down quickly.

What to Watch:

Gosu Pepper and FORG1VEN synergy
If things go sour early in the split, how will they handle it?

8. ROCCAT

The way the split ended for ROCCAT a few weeks ago was disastrous, but that really defined the split for ROCCAT. Small mistakes becoming huge problems. They came into the year as huge favorites to be top 2 and then blew leads or just didn’t show up. There isn’t one person to blame here either, which is why they’ve hit the 8th spot here. I don’t think the past few weeks were enough time to really solidify their issues.

What to Watch:

Woolite tilt
NukeDuck tilt
Everyone tilt

9. Copenhagen Wolves

The Wolves have a lot of improving to do this split as their counterparts in the EU have all gotten extremely good. AirWaks is usually a non-factor, and as a jungler that’s a problem, Unlimited also lacks a lot of pressure as well. Youngbuck has been falling off the past year or so and I don’t see that changing anytime soon. They’ve always been the bottom side of the bracket, but this might be the time they fall out

What to Watch:

Freeze is a very strong ADC
Pressure on Airwaks to show up

10. Giants Gaming

PePii and Werlyb have shown flashes of great play, but even when they show these great sides, it’s usually not enough to pull up their slow macro game. Noxiak was a great addition mid way through the season and his Leona helped snowball their carries past a point where strategy was a big deal, I don’t think they’re going to be able to get away with that this split.

What to Watch:

PePii and maybe Werlyb trying to carry
Flashes of great engages from Noxiak

Making Picks and Bans Interesting

by Jerrod "Thousand Eyes" Steis

The first four weeks of the LCS are under wraps and this season has shown a huge improvement in the pick/ban phase from both the perspective of teams and from the overall balance of the game. Where we used to see the same bans and consequently the same picks throughout the season, we’re now seeing some mind games being played, leaving strong picks open in order to counter them. We’re also seeing a few stylistic choices being made depending on the team.

First off, if we want to look at how things have changed we have to make sure we understand where we came from. If we look at the statistics Kassadin was a permabanned champion in both NA and EU during the 2014 season. He was picked or banned in 92.2% and 98.2% of games respectively. Far and away he was the most feared champion all of Season 4. People just didn't know how to beat him. He could be shut down in lane and still scale incredibly well into the late game. In fact the closest champs to him in bans had 53 in NA (compared to 90) and 41 in EU (compared to 101).

Another group of consistent picks or bans was the trio of Evelynn, Elise and Lee Sin in jungle. Lee Sin was easily the number one jungle pick/ban, but while NA was more adamant about Elise, EU focused more on Evelynn. Regardless, no other jungler was even above 21% in either region. Meaning you saw one, or most likely two, of these three in almost every single game in Season 4. Other notable champions with high pick/ban ratios were Ziggs, Lucian, Thresh and Morgana.

When you look at the ADC position, Lucian was the clear dominant champion throughout the season. He was picked or banned in over 60% of games in both leagues. No other ADC stood the test of time like he did. Outside of Lucian we saw the other ADCs all get some time in the spotlight with Twitch and Kog’Maw getting the most of it.

Overall, if we look at the top 16 champions from both regions, enough to cover an entire pick/ban phase, we can see that these 16 champs were all selected in over 40% of the games over the entire season.

NA Pick/Ban

Champion	Bans	Picks	Wins	Losses	Win %	Picked/Banned in % of Games	Primary Role	Secondary Role
Elise	28	78	45	33	57.7	94.6	Jung
Kassadin	90	14	7	7	50	92.9	Mid	Top
Lulu	53	51	28	23	54.9	92.9	Mid	Top
Lee Sin	46	52	30	22	57.7	87.5	Jung
Thresh	15	60	30	30	50	67	Support
Braum	28	46	29	17	63	66.1	Support
Morgana	16	57	25	32	43.9	65.2	Support
Lucian	15	54	30	24	55.6	61.6	ADC
Yasuo	42	26	16	10	61.5	60.7	Mid
Evelynn	28	31	15	16	48.4	52.7	Jung
Kog'Maw	19	36	17	19	47.2	49.1	ADC
Ziggs	32	22	9	13	40.9	48.2	Mid
Jax	29	25	9	16	36	48.2	Top
Tristana	17	33	20	13	60.6	44.6	ADC	Mid
Twitch	20	27	13	14	48.1	42	ADC
Orianna	6	40	16	24	40	41.1	Mid

EU Pick/Ban

Champion	Bans	Picks	Wins	Losses	Win %	Picked/Banned in % of Games	Primary Role	Secondary Role
Kassadin	101	9	7	2	77.8	98.2	Mid	Top
Lee Sin	28	69	34	35	49.3	86.6	Jung
Evelynn	38	47	24	23	51.1	75.9	Jung
Lucian	5	74	38	36	51.4	70.5	ADC
Elise	16	59	32	27	54.2	67	Jung
Ziggs	39	34	16	18	47.1	65.2	Mid
Thresh	11	61	33	28	54.1	64.3	Support
Morgana	16	49	32	17	65.3	58	Support
Jax	41	24	9	15	37.5	58	Top
Twisted Fate	40	23	11	12	47.8	56.3	Mid
Lulu	19	38	20	18	52.6	50.9	Mid	Top
Kayle	38	19	13	6	68.4	50.9	Top	Mid
Twitch	32	24	14	10	58.3	50	ADC
Yasuo	37	17	7	10	41.2	48.2	Mid
Orianna	25	23	10	13	43.5	42.9	Mid
Braum	14	31	14	17	45.2	40.2	Support

Combine this with the fact that both regions only had 2 of these 16 spots taken by champions unique to that region (Kog’Maw and Tristana in NA replaced by Twisted Fate and Kayle in EU). Throughout all of the meta changes that we saw covering the entire season, these 16 champs dominated the scene.

Now looking at this season, NA drops below 40% pick/ban at the 17th champion mark, Azir. This is already an improvement. Keep in mind this is before we see any large meta shifts to bring in other champions. It gets even better when you look at EU. To break below our 40% threshold we would have to go down to the 21st champion in the list which is Lulu.

Another stat to look at is the total number of champs played in both years. In the 2014 Summer Split we had 67 champions selected in the pick/ban phase. In the 2015 Spring Split we've already hit 49 in NA and 51 in EU. Diversity is most definitely up this year.

What I’d really love to go into more depth with, though, is the process of picks and bans and how that’s changed this year.

Last year we saw Kassadin permabanned through the entire season. This almost felt like one team was almost always down a ban, because you just could not let him through. He would be first picked by the blue side team immediately. Following that we would usually see bans go out towards the flavor of the month champions with no regard to personal preference. These champions were just strong in anyone’s hands.

Bans, in Riot’s mind for the professional scene, should be more used to handle champions that are strong in an individual player’s hands. We’ve actually seen this more often this split with champs like Rumble and Leblanc being banned out. These are champs that, while strong, are only ban worthy threats in the right hands. We’ve also, in relation to this, seen different opinions on what should be first picked when it is left open.

Extremely strong champions like Ahri, Maokai and Lissandra have ways to play around them through lane swaps or early ganks. Outside of maybe Gnar, almost every champ has some kind of a strategy or counterpick against them. Lissandra can get rocked by Kassadin or Irelia. Kassadin and Jax have a hard time dealing with lane swaps because they get starved out of gold and experience. The amount of, god forbid I use the buzzword, strategic diversity is really great this season compared to last and while things aren’t perfect Riot should be commended for what they have done.

It will be very interesting to see where things go from here once we get a strong meta shift. Now that there isn't a champion that is so strong they have to take a long overdue look at them (Kassadin), bans are much more wide open. Teams play around leaving things open like Gnar in order to try and counter them. They also focus bans more on champions that each team has shown strength with rather than overly powerful champs. Once J4 is brought back into line, or other junglers are brought up to his level, and Gnar is toned down as well, bans will function a lot more in Riot’s idea. Things are never going to be perfect, but we have seen a lot of more unique champions this season than we did four weeks into Season 4.

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 by Jerrod "Thousand Eyes" Steis